Poker Counting Odds And Outs

Although poker is a game of facial expressions, intuition and mind reading, it's also a game largely based on math. You'll use math in every aspect of the game, from cash to sit n goes to tournaments. So it makes sense to learn some the basic math concepts if you want to get any good. And the first place I recommend you start is learning about outs and pot odds.

What Are Poker Outs?

The best definition for poker outs is that they are the cards left in the deck that will improve your hand.

• Using The 'Outs' To Calculate Texas Hold'em Poker Odds We have already determined that you have nine 'outs'. Now there are 52 cards in a deck and two of those are in your hand, leaving 50.
• If you have an open-ended straight draw (8 outs), then the rule of thumb for the river would give you percentage of winning of 17% (2 x 8 + 1). Calculated exactly, the probability is 17.4%. In an all-in situation on the flop the rule of thumb gives you a chance of winning of 36% (4 x 9), calculated exactly it is 35%.
• Figuring pot odds (the pot is all the money that has been bet for a single game) is one of the most misunderstood and misused concepts for beginning poker players. In this section, simple and straightforward computations are used.

To calculate the percentage by hand, use any of the following approximations:. For example, using the Goodapproximation, if you have 9 Outs, then you have a 19% chance on the turn, a 19% chance on the river, and a 38% minus 19% of 19% (close to 20% of 20%, which is 4%) equals a 34% chance on the turn and river combined. Want to master Microsoft Excel and take your work-from-home job prospects to the next level? Jump-start your career with our Premium A-to-Z Microsoft Excel Training Bundle from the new Gadget Hacks Shop and get lifetime access to more than 40 hours of Basic to Advanced instruction on functions, formula, tools, and more.

For example, say that you had 98s on a flop of JT2 rainbow. What cards will improve your hand?

Well, you know that a 7 or a Q will improve your hand to a straight. There are four suits to a deck of cards, so that would mean that there are four 7s and four Qs. There are eight cards that will improve your hand, or eight outs.

So, why not a 9 or an 8? Why not consider these cards as outs?

These cards are not considered outs because with two over cards on the flop it's very likely that a 9 or an 8 as a pair would not be the best hand. Not only that, but a 9 or an 8 would complete other drawing hands. So we don't want to include cards as outs that won't necessarily be to the best hand.

Something else that you don't want to do is discount outs. In other words, assume that your opponent has cards, such as a 7 or a Q, leaving you with less than eight outs. As a rule of thumb, if you can't or haven't seen it (the cards you want to discount), then include it in your outs. Besides, we're just looking for a good guestimate, it doesn't need to be perfect.

Turning Outs Into Percentages and/or Odds

Now, counting outs isn't all there is to it. Outs are better used as odds or percentages. The reason why is because when we figure out our pot odds using odds or percentages instead of outs will make it easier and faster for us to do our math and make a decision.

There are a couple of ways to do this.

One way is to use the 2/4 rule. Using this rule, you would take the number of outs that you have and multiply it by two if you only plan on seeing one street, and multiplying your outs by four if you plan on seeing two streets. Then add 1%. For example, if we know that we have eight outs, then using the 2/4 rule we'd know that we are 17% to hit our hand over one street and 33% over two streets. These numbers aren't exact, but if you run them in a calculator you'll find that they are very close.

The second way to turn your outs into odds is to do some quick math. Now, you know there are 52 cards in a deck, right? If we know that there are eight cards that will improve our hand, then that would leave 44 cards that won't. We also see three cards on the flop and two cards in our hand. So all in all, we know that there are 39 cards in the deck that won't help us (or are unavailable). So what we do now is divide the number of cards left in the deck that won't help us, which is 39, by the number of outs that we have, which is eight, and that will give us our ratio (or odds). This gives us 4.875, which is also read as 4.875 to 1. Doing it this way our percentage is about 17% which is exactly the same as doing the 2/4 rule.

I highly recommend using the 2/4 rule just because you'll find that faster and more convenient when you are trying to also figure out ranges and pot odds, not to mention figuring this all out while playing on multiple tables.

In this next section I'll explain a little bit about pot odds, and then I'll combine pot odds and outs so that you can see how they are used together to make a decision.

What Are Pot Odds?

Pot odds are pretty simple – these are the odds that you get by dividing the amount of money in the pot you stand to win, by the amount of money you need to put up (call) in order to win it. It'll make more sense using an example.

Okay, say that there is $50 in the pot. Your opponent raises to $150, making the total pot $200. In order for you to win that $200 pot you have to call $150. To figure out your pot odds simply take $200 and divide that by $150, which comes out to 1.3. This is written out as 1.3 to 1. To turn this into a percentage, simply take one and divide it by 2.3 (the total), which would give you 43%.

That's all there is to pot odds.

Now that you know what poker outs and pot odds are, as well as how to figure out the odds and percentages, I want to show you an example of how you would use both of them together to make a decision.

Poker Outs & Pot Odds Example

So here's an example of how you would use poker outs and odds. The numbers I use are from my examples above.

Say that you were in the same situation on the flop as listed above. You have eight outs to make the best hand, and any other cards are unlikely to help you. Your opponent just that $150 into a $50 pot, making it $200 total and $150 to you.

We know that we are 17% to hit our hand on the turn. We also know that we have 43% pot odds. As a general rule of thumb, whenever the pot odds are higher than the odds of hitting our hand, it is -EV for us to make the call. Another way to look at it is whenever the odds are higher (or more against us) to hit our hand compared to the odds for making a call (4.8 odds to hit our hand vs. 1.3 to call), then it's -EV.

So the real question here is, what would make this call break even or profitable?

In order for this call to be profitable, our pot odds needs to be about 15% (or less). The only way we're going to achieve 15% pot odds is if our opponent bet $10 into the $50 pot. That would make the pot $60, which would mean that we would need to call $10 to win $60 which also reads as 6 to 1. This would give us 14% pot odds. Having to call anything more than $10 would mean that the call is not profitable long-term.

Does that make sense?

Poker Counting Odds And Outs Printable

There Are Exceptions

There are exceptions, of course. Going into much detail is outside the scope of this article though. But one of the exceptions is taking implied odds into consideration.

In general, using implied odds is making a guess as to how much you might win off your opponent in the situation that you hit your hand. In other words, if you knew that you could win your opponent's entire stack if you were to hit your straight, then that would improve your pot odds, which would then mean that it's worth your time to make what seems to be a thin (or bad) call.

For example, if your opponent has 1000 chips behind him after making that $150 bet then you could make the assumption that your $150 call is to win $1200 instead of only 200. In that case your odds would be 80 to 1, or a little over 1%. In this case it's clear that making a call at 16% (remember, if your odds to hit your hand is better than your odds to call) is the right choice.

Keep in mind though, that there are a lot of variables that you must consider before using implied odds. Not to mention that this is simply a guess. If you don't win his entire stack and all that you get is the (200) chips in the pot, then you technically made a bad call on the flop. So there's much more to it then thinking you're going to get his entire stack and then inflating the pot (odds) to justify a bad call.

Poker is essentially a game of betting and probabilities.

If the chance that you will win is better than the odds you are given on the bet – you should decide to take (or make) the bet.

A deep understanding of odds and probabilities is hugely helpful in becoming a better poker player.

Read this article and use the poker training exercises to practice and you will soon get the hang of it.

As an example imagine someone proposing you a bet were you will win $4 each time a 6 comes up on a dice and lose $1 every time anything between 1 and 5 comes up. Would you take this bet?

This bet is a bad proposition for you, because you are guaranteed to lose money in the long run (how long depends on something called variance, but that's another topic).

You can see that this is a bad bet by calculating odds and probabilities.

The money odds you are getting on a 6 coming up is 4:1. You win $4 if it comes up and you lose $1 if it does not come up. This is written as 4:1.

The chance that there will be a 6 on each roll of the dice is 1 in 6. This means that it is 5 times as likely that there will a number other than a 6 on each roll. This can be written as 5:1.

To determine if a bet is good or bad you compare the money odds that you are getting with the probability that you will win.

In this example you compare the money odds of 4:1 with the odds that you win which is 5:1. The money odds are smaller in this example which means it is a bad bet. If you were getting $5 for the 6 instead the money odds would be the same as the win odds an the bet would be neutral. In the long run you would neither lose nor win money on such a bet. And if you were offered more the $5 for each 6 it would be a good bet and you should take it.

All casino games (except Black Jack where card counting can be used), lotteries and such are based on giving worse odds to the players than to the bank. And the players will always lose in the long run.

But fortunately poker isn't played against the bank. And in poker you can use better understanding of odds to give yourself an advantage over your opponents.

Odds

Usually two concepts are used for odds in poker, pot odds and implied odds (negative implied odds are sometimes called reverse implied odds).

Pot odds are the odds you are getting from the money in the pot right now and the money you need to pay to call.

Implied odds take into account money that you can win or loose later in the hand.

Pot odds are calculated and Implied odds are an estimation based on things like probabilities for cards to come, opponent tendencies and such.

Example with Pot Odds

The pot is $12. Opponent bets $6. Your pot odds are calculated by looking at the money you can win ($18) and the money you will put in the pot ($6). The ratio is 3:1. You get this by dividing 18 with 6.

Example with Implied Odds

The pot is $12. Opponent bets $6. You have a fairly disguised open-ended straight draw. Your opponent is aggressive and by considering his tendencies you and likely hand range you estimate that you will win in average $30 more if you hit your draw on the turn (he will often bet and sometimes call a raise).

Your Implied Odds are calculated by dividing the money you expect to win when hitting with the money you are betting (12 + 6 + 30 / 6 = 8:1).

Outs

If you believe your opponent may have a better hand than you, but that some cards will improve your hand to become the best you call each of these cards an 'out'.

Example using Outs

You believe you opponent has a top-pair (one of his hole cards make a pair with the highest card on the board) or an overpair (he has a pocket pair as hole cards and it is higher than the highest card on the board) and you have 4 cards in the same suit with your hole cards combined with the board.

In this case all cards that complete your flush draw are likely to give you the best hand. 4 cards are already out in the suit and 9 remains. The 9 remaining cards are called outs.

If you instead have an open-ended straight draw (can be completed upwards or downwards) you have 8 outs (if you believe the straight will give you the best hand).

Other examples:

• 2 overcards – 6 outs
• Gutshot straight draw (need a card in the middle to complete) – 4 outs
• Gutshot straight draw + a flush draw – 12 outs
• Backdoor draw (same for flush and open-ended straight) – 1 out (only relevant on flop looking to river)

There is a simple rule of thumb to estimate how likely it is that your hand will improve with the help of the outs.

It is called the rule of 4 and 2 and gives a good approximation.

With one card to come the probability that you will hit your hand is number of outs * 2

With two cards to come the probability that you will hit your hand is number of outs * 4

Poker Counting Odds And Outs Game

Example with Outs

The pot is $12. Opponent bets $6. You have a fairly disguised open-ended straight draw. Your opponent is aggressive and by considering his tendencies you and likely hand range you estimate that you will win in average $30 more if you hit your draw on the turn (he will often bet and sometimes call a raise).

Your Implied Odds are calculated by dividing the money you expect to win when hitting with the money you are betting (12 + 6 + 30 / 6 = 8:1).

Poker Counting Odds And Outs Games

Should you call (not considering raising now as this is an example of Implied Odds and Outs)?

Poker Counting Odds And Outs Practice

You have an open-ended straight draw. This means 8 outs. 8 outs gives you 16 % chance with one card to come. 16 % chance is the same as 5:1 odds. Your Implied Odds are 8:1 and your odds for improving is 5:1. This is a clear call.

Discounted Outs

To complicate things a bit there is something called discounted outs. This is used for situations where you are uncertain if your hand will improve to be the best if these cards hit. For example if you two overcards but you believe that hitting either of them will only improve your hand to be best half of the time (for example if you believe your opponent will have a higher overpair half of the time). Then you compensate for that by changing the probability that you will hit a winning hand. If you estimate that the cards will help you to the best hand 50 % of the time, you have to half the probability. In this case you have 6 outs, but you discount half of them (the discounted outs) so your 'real' outs are 3 and you have 6 % probability to get a winning hand on one card, and 12 % with two cards.